Despite economic and housing market headwinds, including the war in the Middle East, stock market volatility, oil and gas prices, talk of a potential recession and a pop-up in mortgage rates, long-term demand drivers remain intact, according to Tim Sullivan, chief advisory officer for Zonda. Sullivan shared his insights during Zonda’s Q2 Housing Market Forecast: Southeast and Florida Outlook on April 23, 2026. Demographics and job growth bode well for the overall housing market, even as some population growth, migration patterns and higher-income job locations shift.
For multifamily investors, job growth is an important factor when deciding where to invest in new developments or value-add projects. Zonda’s research found that in general, job growth is strong in Salt Lake City, North and South Carolina and parts of Florida. High-income job growth, often in technology or white-collar manufacturing jobs, is strong in Salt Lake City, Provo, Phoenix, part of the Midwest, Florida and the Carolinas, according to Sullivan.
Population growth, particularly with newcomers from either international or domestic migration, is another housing demand driver. Zonda’s researchers noted that immigration is down 50% year over year, which slows demand, particularly in markets that typically attract high levels of international immigration. In Florida, for example, immigration is still above 2019 levels, but well below 2024.
Domestic migration patterns have shifted over the past five years, with Greenville, S.C. joining the list of top 10 markets for in-migration for 2024-2025, ranked only behind Raleigh. Las Vegas and Tulsa dropped off the list from 2023-2024, while Oklahoma City rose to 9th place and Phoenix rejoined the top 10 markets for the first time since 2021-2022. Other markets with strong domestic migration this year include Jacksonville, Charlotte, Nashville, Austin, San Antonio and Richmond.
“Domestic migration patterns are important because even when there’s no population increase, when migration increases, we see new demand,” Sullivan said.
Markets to Watch
Earlier in 2026, Zonda researchers ranked the top markets that appear to be the most resilient based on several factors such as employment, migration, income, education and manufacturing investment. The list includes:
- Charleston
- Columbia, S.C.
- Columbus
- Raleigh
- Charlotte
- Boise
- Louisville
- Phoenix
- Provo
- Philadelphia
Four of the top 10 markets are in the Carolinas, pointed out Shaun McCutcheon, vice president, homebuilding – Carolinas for Zonda’s advisory division.
Market Focus: Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham
McCutcheon focused his research for this webinar on several Southeastern markets.
Atlanta: Household growth in Atlanta is solid, McCutcheon said, with 50,000 new households in 2025 and long-term projections to hover near 30,000 annually. The economy there is healthy, but not as robust as in the past. In 2022, 150,000 new jobs were added in Atlanta, but that fell to 13,000 new jobs in 2025. However, the unemployment rate there is just under 4%.
Charlotte: Charlotte’s business-friendly environment has generated high-income job growth at a level just behind New York City. Job growth is particularly high in banking and finance, along with corporate offices for many Fortune 500 companies. Charlotte’s net job growth was 32,000 in 2025, higher than 2024. From 2020 through 2025, 193,000 net new jobs were created in Charlotte. Household growth is strong, too, with a record 35,000 new households in 2025 and projections for annual growth of 21,000 to 22,000 going forward. McCutcheon anticipates a larger number than that for 2026.
“Charlotte is three times smaller than Atlanta, but it produced three times as many jobs than Atlanta last year in a good mix of categories,” McCutcheon said.
The multifamily building boom in Charlotte has subsided, he said, with permits for multifamily construction down 32% in 2026 compared to the peak in 2021.
Raleigh-Durham: In 2025, household growth in this market reached 30,000, well above the average of 16,000 annually. Projected household growth is anticipated to be 18,000 annually. Raleigh-Durham has low unemployment and high paying job growth, especially in the healthcare sector. Job growth was about 20,000 in 2025, with 18,000 new jobs projected annually. The multifamily boom of 2021 to 2023 has subsided in both Raleigh and Durham.
Overall, all three markets are poised for population, household formation and job growth through 2030, with median incomes projected to be over $90,000 in all three areas.
Market Focus: Florida
Susan Heffron, vice president, homebuilding – Southeast for Zonda’s advisory division, researched Jacksonville, Orlando and the Tampa/Sarasota markets, in part because all three are outperforming other markets in certain metrics. All three have large populations of Baby Boomers (20%) and Gen Xers (19%), which contribute to their presence on Zonda’s “Baby Chaser Index” of places where grandparents are likely to move to be near their children and grandchildren. In addition, with the significant presence of older households, young families are likely to move to those locations to be near their parents and grandparents.
All three markets have unemployment rates below 4%, which is projected to continue. Job growth is projected to be about 5% over the next five years, which reflects a normalized, strong economy, Heffron said. Median incomes are anticipated to rise about 2% per year to around $90,000 by 2030.
By 2030, Tampa’s population is expected to grow by 151,500 to 4.5 million, while Orlando is anticipated to add 231,500 people to reach 4 million. Jacksonville is projected to gain 70,000 new residents to reach a population of 2 million residents. Household formations are also anticipated to be at normal steady rates, with Jacksonville adding 42,500 new households, Tampa adding 100,000 and Orlando adding 115,500 by 2030.
The information provided in this article, including, without limitation, any opinions, predictions, forecasts, commentaries or suggestions, is for informational purposes only and should not be construed to be professional or personal investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice.