From Resilience Toward Optimism
Overview
Cushman & Wakefield’s United States Outlook 2026 positions the U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) market at a meaningful inflection point, shifting from a 2025 environment characterized by uncertainty to an outlook for 2026 grounded in stronger fundamentals, improved market visibility and broad-based optimism. This transition reflects a combination of economic resilience, easing financing conditions, and renewed investor confidence. The report’s main takeaways are summarized below.
Macroeconomic and CRE Context
After an extraordinary period of macroeconomic volatility in 2025, the U.S. economy exceeded expectations with real GDP growth estimated at approximately 1.9 percent in 2025 and projected at roughly 1.7 percent for 2026. A notable driver of this performance has been accelerated investment in artificial intelligence and related technologies, which accounted for a material share of GDP expansion. Amid this backdrop, key CRE performance indicators are stabilizing and, in some cases, improving.
Capital Markets and Financing Dynamics
A pronounced shift in capital markets activity underpins much of the optimism for 2026:
- Liquidity Recovery: After two years of constrained capital availability, lenders have re-entered the market, and institutional capital is returning to CRE transactions.
- Improved Debt Conditions: Lending volumes have shown meaningful increases year-over-year as debt costs ease and credit spreads remain historically tight.
- Valuation Reset: Pricing adjustments over the past cycle are enabling investors to assess assets with clearer expectations, supporting both acquisitions and refinancings.
These developments collectively create a more supportive financing environment relative to recent years, reducing friction for investors and borrowers alike.
Sector Trends and Asset Class Performance
Cushman & Wakefield’s outlook highlights evolving dynamics across major CRE sectors:
- Office Space: The office sector shows tentative signs of stabilizing as leasing fundamentals normalize and occupiers become more decisive, particularly for high-quality assets in major markets.
- Industrial and Logistics: Strong demand drivers, including e-commerce and supply chain optimization, underpin industrial leasing and absorption trends in key hubs.
- Multifamily: Elevated demand for rental housing persists, propelled by high mortgage rates and limited for-sale inventory, contributing to robust absorption patterns.
- Alternative Sectors: Emerging strength is visible in sectors such as data centers, life sciences stabilization and demographic-driven alternatives, further diversifying CRE opportunity sets.
Outlook and Implications for 2026
The narrative of From Resilience to Optimism captures the sector’s trajectory as 2026 approaches. Fundamental stability, clearer capital flows, and sectoral momentum collectively support a view that CRE markets are transitioning into an environment with expanding opportunities for investors and occupiers. While risks remain — including policy uncertainty and localized headwinds — the broader outlook suggests a return to normalized activity and enhanced confidence entering the new year.
Key Takeaways
- Economic Foundation: Sustained GDP growth and structural drivers support CRE demand across major markets.
- Capital Markets Revival: A meaningful return of liquidity and lender participation enhances deal execution prospects.
- Sector Variation: Multifamily and industrial sectors show durable strength, with office and alternatives offering differentiated pathways.
- Forward Momentum: The shift toward optimism signals improved CRE visibility and investor confidence as 2026 unfolds.
The information provided in this article, including, without limitation, any opinions, predictions, forecasts, commentaries or suggestions, is for informational purposes only and should not be construed to be professional or personal investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice.